Multi-Level Analysis of Wheat Import Sensitivity in IGAD Countries: From Country-Level Elasticities to Regional Causal Dynamics
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61326/actanatsci.v6i2.408Keywords:
IGAD, Wheat imports, Price volatility, Panel causality, ARDLAbstract
This paper explores how wheat import volumes in Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) countries respond to global price changes, and whether these reactions vary across countries or over time. Wheat is a critical staple in the region, and its import dynamics are increasingly important as the bloc faces recurring shocks like drought, conflict, and global price spikes. Using a two-pronged approach, we first apply country-level autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and find long-run cointegration across all IGAD members. Eritrea and Ethiopia show strong long-run negative price elasticities, pointing to substitution or price-sensitive behavior. South Sudan, Sudan, and Somalia display short-run positive responses, likely linked to urgent procurement or aid-related deliveries. Uganda shows limited responsiveness, while Djibouti—though also reactive in the short term—likely reflects its role as a re-export hub rather than fragility-driven volatility. Kenya shows both long-run sensitivity and short-run spikes, indicating a more complex market and policy mix. At the bloc level, panel Granger causality tests reveal a two-way relationship between global wheat prices and imports. Notably, imports also Granger-cause price shifts—an unexpected result suggesting that even uncoordinated regional import behavior may shape market expectations. This finding strengthens the case for more strategic procurement and regional storage mechanisms.
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